Dr Ed Atkins explores three examples of the place-based implications of net zero as a process of industrial change. This blog is based on a recent report by Dr Atkins – Developing place-based green industrial policy in the UK.
The UK government’s legal obligation to reach net zero by 2050 demands significant, long-term action. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is a national policy response to a global problem, but it plays out locally.
In places across the UK, new sectors and supply chains will emerge, and other industries decline. Employment opportunities and skills demand will also shift.
Net zero as economic change
One in five workers will experience net‑zero’s economic changes directly. Around 1% (309,000 workers) are in sectors likely to be phased down, while 7% (2.1 million) work in industries expected to pivot to ‘green’ products and processes.
For many of those affected by such a change, the transition to net zero is not always a climate policy; it’s also a programme of economic and industrial change.
While there are many positive stories of new ‘green’ industries, there have also been missed opportunities. In this blog, I explore the place-based implications of net zero as a process of industrial change. In a recent report for the LPIP Hub (add link), I detail three cases from across the UK that show how workers and communities have experienced the opportunities and uncertainties of the shift to a low‑carbon economy.
Between them, these cases show what happens when global markets, national policy, and local economic hopes collide. They are:
- The relocation of wind turbine manufacturing by Vestas from Newport, Isle of Wight, in 2009.
- The collapse of Burntisland Fabrications in Fife and the Isle of Lewis, Scotland (2017-2020)
- The unfulfilled promise of a battery gigafactory in Blyth, Northumberland, to support the transition to electric vehicles (2019-2024).
Missed opportunities for place-based green industrial policy
The UK becoming a ‘clean energy superpower’ must also involve benefits extending beyond the sites of energy generation and across the country. The key to doing this is building new, resilient supply chains.
The Government have taken important steps that hold much promise. The relaxation of the unofficial moratorium on onshore wind will build demand for the supply chains. Investments through Great British Energy will reduce the bottlenecks in manufacturing sectors supporting renewables.
But such policy moves must reconcile a criticism of previous green industrial policy. Policy frameworks have, to date, reduced emissions and created jobs, but often without the desired economic outcomes for workers and communities across the UK. This reveals the importance of political economy over policy architecture.
Taken together, these cases highlight three key lessons for place-based green industrial policy in the UK.
First, they illuminate the extent to which manufacturing supply chains remain rooted in place and domestic markets that require proactive action. The collapse of BiFab shows that a place-based green industrial policy must move beyond reactive bailouts and toward proactive planning. Sustained national investment can create a predictable pipeline and support domestic supply chains.
Second, they show how fragile the benefits of green transitions can be without these secure domestic supply chains and demand. In the case of Vestas, uncertainty over onshore wind energy installation signalled a gap between national demand and manufacturing at Newport. The Vestas plant manufactured parts that were used for energy transitions in other countries, rather than on its doorstep. As a result, manufacturing relocated, and jobs went elsewhere.
Third, green transitions can fail if left to the market alone. New or pivoting companies can struggle to compete against established competitors. The case of Britishvolt shows how new firms struggled to deliver on promises of new jobs without sustained investment and market certainty and collapsed.
Who is a green future for?
Net zero is not just a technical transition, it is also a political, economic and place-based process. Missed opportunities, like those outlined here, undermine trust in the transition and provide new ground for backlash.
Public debate focuses on industrial loss, such as in steel manufacturing in Port Talbot or Scunthorpe. Yet the examples outlined in this report highlight different lessons: of the difficulties in turning the promises of a green economy into something more durable and place-based.
In the cases of BiFab, Britishvolt and Vestas, policy signals were not reconciled with broader systemic changes – ultimately contributing to the precarity and decline of green jobs in emergent industries.
The backlash against net zero is growing. We must confront the logic behind such scepticism: namely, that the costs outweigh the benefits. This work highlights the need for a place-based green industrial policy that ensures certainty, resilient regional and national supply chains, and viable skills pathways for workers.
This blog was written by Ed Atkins, Senior Lecturer, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol.
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Disclaimer:
The views expressed in this post are those of the author and not necessarily those of City-REDI or the University of Birmingham.