By Professor Aditya Goenka, Department of Economics, Birmingham Business School
Understanding the voting intentions of the minority groups is important as they constituted 19.3% of the population in 2021 in England and Wales. The distribution within England varies with a much higher representation in urban areas such as greater London, Birmingham and West Midlands, Leicester, West Yorkshire, and Manchester. There’s also variation at the constituency level. The main minority groups are usually classified as Asian and Black but within these broad umbrellas there are different groups: Bangladeshi, Indian, Pakistani origin in the former and African and Caribbean origin in the latter.
Historically, the Labour Party received the overwhelming support of different minority groups but there have been questions on whether this remains the case. There are significant differences in concerns across these groups. The two major events that have received media attention are the Windrush scandal and the recent Palestinian conflict.
Impact of the Windrush Scandal
The Windrush scandal and the delays in payouts to those affected would largely affect the standing of the Conservative party in the community with Caribbean origin. The Labour party has had a stronger following in the community with Caribbean origin which had faced a history of racist riots in the 1970s-1980s. However, the suspension of Diane Abbott, the first female Black MP and among the first three MPs elected in the 20th century by the Labour Party, would have a large negative impact on support for the Labour Party.
Diverse Experiences within the African-Origin Community
The more recent African origin community does not have a similar experience and is more conservative in outlook (Kemi Badenoch and Kwasi Kwarteng both have roots in Africa rather than the Caribbean) and even among this community there are great differences: a person with Nigerian origin will have little in common with someone from Ghana, let alone with someone from Sudan or Eritrea who has fled a conflict zone. These groups would be concerned about the parties’ plans surrounding refugees. The voting intentions show that 72% of the Black community intends to vote Labour, a drop from around 80% in 1997. Apathy for voting is historically high for the Black community, and the decline in support may reduce turnout even further.
Concerns within South Asian Communities
There is great heterogeneity among those with South Asian origin who make up the largest group of minorities in the UK. These groups are classified by country of origin: Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi being the three largest groups. However, it may be worthwhile to use a different way of classifying these groups to understand UK elections.
Of the people of Indian origin, the largest would be those of Hindu religion, and smaller percentages of Sikh and Muslim communities. Until recently, the largest Hindu population was those who were expelled from East Africa. The PM, Rishi Sunak, and former Home Secretary Priti Patel are from this group, as is former Home Secretary, Suella Braverman (whose mother is Hindu but she is not). As the UK fulfilled its obligation by resettling them in the country, this group has a more positive view of the Empire than other minority groups. Their distrust of the Black minority groups given their experience in East Africa should not be underestimated. There has been a growth in the Hindu population from India more recently. Some of them have brought with them the ideas of Hindu nationalism, Hindutva, as seen in the 2022 Leicester riots. In terms of voting intentions, a recent poll shows that they are the most favourable to the Conservative party.
Some of the concerns of the Pakistani, Bangladeshi, and Indian Muslim communities are common, such as the Palestine issue, and some are not, such as the question of status of Kashmir amongst the Pakistani community, a significant number of whom are from Kashmir. As with other minority groups, Muslims in the UK also tended to historically vote Labour as Islamophobia has characterised statements from leaders of the Conservative Party such as Boris Johnson. This continues to be an issue in the party. The Labour Party is not immune to such issues itself but was seen as qualitatively different from the Conservative Party.
The assault on Gaza Strip in response to the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel led to a big schism in the support of Muslims for Labour. In the initial stage, Sir Keir Starmer in a live interview said it is acceptable for Israel to deny power and water to the Gaza Strip. There were denials on what was meant, but a 3-line whip was imposed on voting on the SNP motion calling for a ceasefire. There was immediate fallout with Labour MPs resigning from the Shadow Cabinet. Many Labour councillors quit in response to the stance on the conflict and ceasefire and others were disciplined. This has affected not only the Muslim support for the Labour party where a large number say they intend to vote for the Green Party mainly as a protest vote, but also among the liberal and the young voters. The blocking of Faiza Shaheen from standing as a Labour candidate for liking a tweet has increased this sense of alienation.
Brexit and its Aftermath
During the Brexit vote, Boris Johnson and Priti Patel convinced the Bangladesh Caterers Association which had 150,000 members to vote leave as they would prioritise immigration from the region. This did not materialise. The exit of Eastern European workers in the catering industry and the increase in the threshold in income for a work permit is a continuing problem. Labour, however, may not benefit from this. Not only has the support for Israel blockade of Palestine by Sir Keir Starmer reduced trust but also the recent interview given by him to The Sun where he said: “At the moment people coming from countries like Bangladesh are not being removed because they’re not being processed.” The convergence of the Labour Party position to that of the Conservatives on reducing immigration is going to remain a cause for concern.
Political Calculus
The political calculus seems to be that the decline in Muslim support for the Labour party will not affect electoral outcomes to a significant level. However, this has led to a rise in independent Muslim candidates. The Labour West Midlands mayoral candidate won very narrowly with 70,000 votes going to the independent candidate Akmed Yaqoob. He is now contesting Birmingham Ladywood which has been held by Shabana Mahmood, the shadow justice secretary, for the last 15 years.
In the recent council elections, the support for Labour is estimated to have dropped by 33% in some areas. Given the swing in favour of the Labour party in the parliamentary elections, there may not be a significant effect on the outcome. The biggest unknown will be voter turnout. If it is low, then the voting behaviour of minority groups may have significant effects at least at the constituency level.
The fragmentation of the support of large sections of minority groups for the two main parties may lead to greater rise of identity politics for these groups. While rise of political parties more aligned to the needs of particular groups of the electorate addresses the feelings of democratic deficit, there is a danger that it can lead to greater polarisation in society.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the University of Birmingham.