By Dr Anna Kotova, Associate Professor in Criminology
School of Social Policy and Society, University of Birmingham
In September 2024, it was announced that a number of prisoners were set for earlier release, at the 40% point of their sentence as opposed to the 50% point, in order to relieve some of the overcrowding pressures that most of the prisons in England and Wales are facing.
Of course, this means that the pressure will have been shifted onto Probation, which is responsible for supervising people released on license. Like prisons, however, the Probation Service is facing capacity problems. Although this may be less stark than potentially running out of prison spaces, good supervision of licensees still requires appropriate staffing, community accommodation and other resources. Therein lies the challenge – simply releasing people early is a short-term solution to a set of complex long-term problems, and one that shifts the burden from one service to another.
Firstly, early release does not address the reasons why our prisons are overcrowding. It is a result of many years of sending more people in prison for longer. The current government has announced plans to review sentencing policies, which is certainly a welcome starting point and may address some of the root causes of the problem. Review of imprisonment for public protection (IPP) sentences, which saw people “stuck” in the prisons system many years beyond their original tariff to be services is also welcome.
Secondly, it is naïve to expect that released prisoners will simply start to lead lawful lives without support and supervision. It is unsurprising that some reports have noted people were released at short notice, with no accommodation, with travel tickets that bus operations are unfamiliar with. When one is used to the structure of prison life, this can be quite a shock to the system and it is perhaps unsurprising why one might fall back into old habits in these circumstances.
Release needs to be carefully planned with an appropriate lead-in period – something that in itself requires staff and resources even before people are released. The annual 2023-2024 HMPPS report notes that the Probation Service is still facing staffing issues. Just over 500 new trainees were recruited in that year and there was a 25% vacancy rate. Over 12% Band 3 (lowest band) Probation Officers left their jobs. Inspections have rated probations units as inadequate when it comes to assessment, planning and delivery. This means that licensees were not properly assessment and planning for their needs, as well as delivery of services to help them address these needs, was poor.
One key problem is that an overworked and short-staffed Probation Service is more likely to make mistakes and resort to shortcuts when it comes to assessments, resulting in possible mistakes and consequent risk to the general public. They may also have very little time to properly engage in helping the licensee address their needs, such as housing.
Although early release was an understandable short-term response to the overcrowding crisis inherited by a new government, any long-term solutions need to address the problems in a multi-faceted manner:
- Sentencing reform – consider a presumption against short prison sentences, which are expensive and do not reduce crime. This would be in line with Scottish practice. The Labour government has indicated that this is something that a sentencing review will consider. This will essentially reduce the number of people going into prison to begin with, and perhaps could have long-term positive effects as short sentences result in a higher reoffending rate, and so are counter productive.
- Ensure adequate funding for probation services; recruit and retain more staff.
- Invest in broader “downstream” interventions that may reduce the risk of people committing crime, such as interventions for young people, better mental health provision and addiction services, reduction of homelessness. This is an ambitious undertaking, but one that should be considering alongside more direct solutions. For example, specialist drug courts may keep people with addictions out of the formal prison system and are shown to be more effective.
Overall, it remains to be seen what the new Labour government will do in practice, though the messaging so far has been promising. To her credit, the Lord Chancellor, Shabana Mahmood, appears to recognise that early release is only a short-term solution, so we await further long-term action to be taken.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the University of Birmingham.