Resilient food systems, resilient futures: Why SIDS must drive an agri-food systems agenda at COP30

The crisis in SIDS’ agri-food systems

In 2022, 31% of people surveyed in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) said they were unable to eat healthy and nutritious food and were eating less than they thought they should. Moreover, an additional 2.6 million people experienced moderate to severe food insecurity due to increased heatwaves and droughts compared with the annual 1981–2010 average.

Agri-food systems in SIDS are failing to provide nutritious, diverse and affordable diets, while also harming fragile island ecosystems through deforestation and pollution. These systems receive little attention in global climate negotiations, and when they do they are framed almost exclusively as part of the problem. This is because food systems contribute to 34% of GHG emissions, and are responsible for nearly 90% of global deforestation, 70% of freshwater withdrawal, and 60% of biodiversity decline.

However, food systems can play a crucial role in tackling climate change, biodiversity loss and inequality – if we start to consider them as part of the solution.

A missed opportunity at COP29

COP28 was a watershed moment for agri-food, with 160 countries signing a non-binding declaration to reform agriculture and food systems and integrate them within climate policies. This led to many countries including food production and consumption issues in their Nationally Determined Contributions: nearly all countries identified agri-food systems as a priority for ‘adaptation’ (94 per cent) and ‘mitigation’ (91 percent).

However, COP29 failed to build on this momentum. Commitments to reduce emissions and fund adaptation efforts were woefully inadequate, particularly for vulnerable nations like SIDS. Food systems remain severely underfunded, receiving only 3.4% of the $115.9 billion in climate finance mobilised in 2022. For SIDS, this is a double blow: not only do they get a limited share of climate finance, but a critical issue for their development and survival is largely ignored.

Putting SIDS at the heart of agri-food discussions in COP30

COP 30 will take place in Brazil –- one of the world’s most densely forested nations and the fourth-largest agri-food producer, following China, India and the U.S. The country’s hosting of both the G20 in 2024 and COP 30 in 2025 is of great significance. President Lula da Silva, re-elected in 2023, has long prioritised tackling hunger, poverty, environmental sustainability and wealth inequality, and has sought assertively to place these themes on global agendas. His launch of the ‘Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty’ at the Rio G20 is instructive. Moreover, Brazil’s position as a leading agri-food producer implies that food security and nutrition and agriculture will be central themes at COP30.

Reducing dependence on imports

During climate discussions at COP30, SIDS will want to push for sustainable agri-food systems given their heavy reliance on food imports. With over half of these nations importing more than 80% of their food, SIDS are particularly vulnerable to external shocks and rising food prices.

This dependency has deep roots in colonial legacies and resource constraints, and has led to diets increasingly dominated by processed foods high in sugar, salt, red meat and unhealthy fats. As a result, rates of diet-related diseases such as diabetes, obesity, heart disease and cancer are rising. Shifting towards healthier, more sustainable diets in SIDS is therefore closely tied to broader debates about the role of global agri-food systems in sustaining the climate crisis.

Protecting local agriculture

Meanwhile, local food production faces growing pressure from freshwater shortages, heat stress, soil moisture changes, saline intrusion and coastal erosion, and extreme weather events. As islands surrounded by the ocean, fisheries are particularly crucial to food security in SIDS. However, marine ecosystems are increasingly threatened by climate change. Rising sea levels and temperatures are damaging vital fish spawning and foraging habitats, such as mangroves, wetlands, coral reefs, and seagrass beds, jeopardising the resilience of both ecosystems and livelihoods.

For SIDS, securing their food supply is not just about economics – it’s about survival.

What SIDS should push for at COP30